Tripura election is upon us and is widely being campaigned for. One of the main reasons the polls are such a big talking point is because of the political forces involved. The most powerful party in the country at the moment, BJP would be in a direct contest with the CPI(M) government, which is ruling the state since 1993. We discuss key deciding factors for the saffron party that could spell victory or defeat for it.
Favourable Elements
1. Modi Wave
The BJP has, undeniably, a strong leader in Modi and the northeastern state has not been left untouched by the Modi wave. The development politics agenda of the party has wooed the youth and old of the state alike. Modi’s charisma is the strongest factor the party can bank upon to gravitate people towards it in the polls.
2. Tribal Community
The tribal people in the state are more inclined towards the saffron party than the ruling CPI(M) government. Many tribal organisations, like Gana Mukti Parishad, along with the government are losing the support of the tribal populace. The tribal community, although, making only 30% of the population in the state, strongly influences the poll results.
3. Congress Taking Backseat
One of the major competitors of the saffron party, Congress is seemingly fading out of the Tripura poll scene; evident from various of its party leaders defecting to the BJP. With one big party moving out of the picture, this implies a clear swaying of the votes for Congress towards the saffron party.
Unfavourable Elements
1. Strong Hold of CPI-M
At the grassroots level, the CPI-M clearly has a much stronger base than the saffron party. CPI-M is ruling the state for 2.5 decades and also enjoys a strong foundation, owing to its influence on various local organisations in the state like GMP (Gana Mukti Parisad), SFI, CITU and more. The saffron party is far from making inroads into the state and does not share the same stature in the state as the CPI-M.
2. Tripura is Not Agitated
Tripura, unlike other northeastern states, is very peaceful. Therefore, BJP’s political strategies do not exactly facilitate in swaying the votes towards it.
3. Lack of Strong Leadership
Although BJP has Modi, it lacks the Chief Ministerial candidate that could compete with Manik Sarkar. Sarkar’s credibility as a clean and honest CM makes CPI-M a highly difficult party to win from.
The Tripura polls are undoubtedly interesting and much-awaited elections of the year.
The polls are scheduled on February 18, 2018, and the results would be declared on March 3.
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