Assembly elections are due in West Bengal in 2016. The poll bugle has been sounded. Some four major political parties are in the fray to form government in the state. The last assembly elections were held in 2011 when the Trinamool Congress secured a historic victory. This party, with Mamata Banerjee at the forefront, managed to topple the 34-year-old Left Front regime in the state. The Left Front was the longest-serving democratically elected Communist government in the world. While the Trinamool Congress bagged 184 out of the 294 assembly seats, the CPI(M) had to sit in the opposition with just 40 seats. The exit polls had predicted a similar outcome. The election results were noted with interest by international media.
The 2011 elections covered much media space and became a talking point of raging intellectual debates. The massive decimation of the CPI(M) led to speculations that the party was heading towards extinction. On the other hand, the Trinamool Congress and its leader Mamata Banerjee became the most compelling figures in the state and beyond.
The CPI(M) and its recently-elected general secretary, Sitaram Yechury, face an important challenge of resurrecting itself in this elections. Preparations are on within the party to mobilise support and fortify campaigning. The party recently organised a tutorial for its cadres to train them in using social media for campaigning. This is an interesting shift for a party which had been against computers and IT during its regime.
Is Congress-CPI(M) Coalition on the Cards?
Speculations are rife about whether CPI(M) will go alone or forge an alliance with the Congress. The party itself is not willing to shed much light on this. The CPM politburo has kept people in tenterhooks by refusing to dispel the air of ambiguity over possible coalition. It has only said that a decision on alliance will be taken at an “appropriate time”. The politburo added that there can be ‘swift changes in the political situation’ and that ‘flexible tactics’ should be evolved to deal with the situation.
Interestingly, the Congress is yet to declare who it is with. Though the CPI(M) would find an alliance helpful, it knows that being persistent won’t be a good tactic. The Congress party’s state cadre is apparently unwilling to ally with the CPI(M). Said one Congress member, “There is no denying that the CPM had let loose terror on Congress workers during its 34-year regime. But the difference is clear. In those days, we could have at least voiced our protest on streets. This time, Trinamool is using its police to stop us from speaking against its reign of terror.” However, the state Congress leaders agree that they will abide by the decision of the party high command in Delhi.
BJP’s Prospects
An important third independent contender to have emerged in the Bengal electoral race is the BJP. In the 2014 general elections, this party registered its best performance in the state. However, sustaining this popularity in the run-up to 2016 assembly elections would be a challenge. Notably, the BJP did not win even one out of the 95 civic bodies that went to polls in 2015. The recent riots in Malda and polarising statements like “West Bengal will become another mini-Bangladesh” if BJP is not voted to power, may impact the party’s chances in Bengal.
What do Exit Polls Predict about Trinamool Congress?
When it comes to the Trinamool Congress, it has not been an easy ride for Mamata’s government. The party has had its share of achievements and setbacks. The Saradha scam remains a black spot. Banerjee has had a tough task of cleansing the party of the members accused in Saradha scam and falling out with party members once very close to her. The TMC government has made a few commendable achievements on the economic front. In the run-up to 2016 elections, Banerjee looks ambitious and determined. The TMC supremo is reportedly in talks with professional campaign strategist Praveen Kishor. Praveen Kishor played an important role in the electoral success of Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar.
A few exit polls have declared that the TMC would win hands down if elections were to be conducted in the state today. The BJP is expected to be a close runner-up. However, a lot could happen in the next few months that would impinge on the forthcoming elections and its outcome.
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