As the term of Assam’s legislative assembly comes to an end in June 2016, the stage is set for another round of elections to elect MLAs from the state’s 126 constituencies. A full bench of the Election Commission of India toured Assam on 21 December 2015 to assess the state’s poll preparedness. The commission will announce the final election schedule in March, 2016. Nonetheless, it is expected that elections will be held somewhere between April and May before the expiry of the current assembly.
Understandably, all the major political contenders have swung into action in preparation for the polls. In the last assembly elections held in 2011, the Congress got landslide victory. Tarun Gogoi, the incumbent chief minister, was sworn in for a third consecutive term.
Upgradation of the National Register of Citizens
The Supreme Court of India is monitoring the process of updating the National Register of Citizens (NRC). Over one lakh names in Assam’s electoral rolls carry the prefix “D”, where “D” represents “Doubtful” citizenship status. The apex court has directed the Assam government to complete its process of upgrading the NRC by 1 March 2016. The whole process is aimed at detection, detention and deportation of illegal immigrants who crossed over to India from Bangladesh on or after 25 March 1971. This official procedure is a highly contentious issue in Assam today.
BJP’s Electoral Ambitions
The Bharatiya Janata Party made Sarbananda Sonowal, a union minister in the NDA cabinet, as the party’s chief in Assam in November 2015. Sonowal, the only Assamese in Modi’s cabinet, represents the state’s Lakhimpur constituency in the Lok Sabha. Sonowal first came under the spotlight when he got the contentious Illegal Migration (Determination by Tribunal) Act struck down by the Supreme Court of India in 2006. Back then, he was a member of the All Assam Students’ Union (AASU).
Evidently, the BJP is going all out to secure majority in the upcoming Assam assembly elections. Sarbananda Sonowal has been selected as the party’s chief ministerial candidate. The party’s government at the centre is considering a series of sops for the Assamese electorate. Extending Scheduled Tribe status to six communities is one of them. The six communities, which include the Motok, Moran, Tai Ahom, Koch Rajbonshi, Sootia and Tea tribes, represent over 40% of the state’s people. Incidentally, this was also one of the principal demands of the pro-talks faction of ULFA.
The BJP state unit started ‘Assam Nirman’ initiative on 26 December 2015. The party has sought public opinion in preparing a vision document to make Assam a developed state. It has also engaged Rajat Sethi, a public policy graduate from Harvard University for this purpose.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a tour of Assam in January and announced his party’s alliance with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). Besides, 500 Maulanas in Assam have declared their support to BJP at their conference and endorsed the party’s ‘nationalist’ ideology. In what may give further boost to the party’s chances of getting majority in the elections, a number of Congress MLAs, including Himanta Biswa Sarma, have moved to BJP.
What is the Strategy of the Congress?
Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi visited Assam in December 2015. He announced that Tarun Gogoi will be the party’s chief ministerial candidate for the forthcoming state elections. Rahul alleged that RSS workers had prevented him from entering a temple in Barpeta district. The RSS denied the allegation. The Congress party is reportedly seeking the services of election strategist Prashant Kishor to clinch victory.
Incumbent chief minister Tarun Gogoi is doing his best to woo voters by announcing freebies like giving rice at Rs. 2 per kg and building an all-religion bhawan. The gradual shift of important party MLAs to BJP has, however, been a serious cause of concern. Fighting brave, Gogoi is appealing people to stay away from BJP’s ‘beef politics’ and entreating other parties to form a grand secular alliance to counter the BJP.
Even so, distasteful remarks like those made by Congress state leader Nilamoni Sen Deka, have only helped mar the party’s image in the state and beyond. Deka had made controversial remarks against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP minister Smriti Irani. An FIR has been registered against the erring leader.
What do the Opinion Polls Say?
As the election war heats up, the Assamese voters can only be sure of seeing more twists, turns and surprises before going to vote on the D-day. Although it is little early to predict who the voter will bring to power, few opinion polls have predicted that the verdict is most likely to go in favour of BJP. If current trends are anything to go by, the BJP will secure majority while AIUDF and the Congress will emerge as runners-up.
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