It will be unwise to predict the outcome of West Bengal assembly elections as the results are still two months away. However, the state has seen some unpredictable developments in the last few months that show desperation among the political stakeholders in the state. Much before the sting video surfaced claiming TMC leaders’ role in a bribery scandal, the state witnessed a flurry of developments.
Trinamool Congress and its Clout in West Bengal
While the latest opinion poll conducted by ETV Bangla suggested that the TMC will win 201of the 294 seats in the assembly, the reports of other surveys conducted by AC Nielsen and C-Voter are not much different. Despite a state-wide expectation of positive result, the party is not taking any chances. It has been leveraging social media to nullify negative campaigns of opposition and propagate the development story.
When West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee started her first election campaign in Siliguri, she launch an attack on the Congress-CPI(M) tie-up and the BJP. She is all set to visit Kerala and expose the “unholy” alliance between the CPI-M and Congress in West Bengal. While the sting video on party leaders accepting bribe tried to douse the positive sentiment among the party workers, the freebie politics of Banerjee-led government is keeping the boat afloat.
In a recent report, it has been highlighted that the state’s subsidy component in the last two fiscal years has increased from Rs. 2276.12 crore (2014-15) to Rs. 7078.81 crore (2016-17). This is how freebies are putting pressure on debt-ridden state. Whether voters endorse this trend or revolt against the appeasement policy, will be reflected in the results.
Left Front Living in Denial
I heard Prakash Karat say last week that the CPI (M) and its Left allies will emerge stronger after the assembly elections in five states. The former CPI (M) general secretary asserted that the assembly elections results will give left parties a stronger platform. He was convinced that the Left Front will win in West Bengal and Kerala. One can understand that Mr. Karat is drawing his conviction from the fact that the left parties have strong pockets of influence in West Bengal, especially in the rural areas.
However, there are enough reasons to worry over the Left Front’s prospects in West Bengal assembly elections. One has to understand that the Left Front is comparatively new in its role as an opposition in Bengal. Unlike in Kerala, the party’s organisational strength is perhaps not formidable enough to counter TMC’s aggression.
Only brilliant strategy and the persistence in championing the cause of middle-class and poor voters can help Left front spring back to importance. It is also facing the threat of it’s vote share being eaten away by the BJP as the latter is likely to get some of the anti-TMC votes.
Congress Feeling the Pressure
The Congress is already tensed at the prospects of losing both the Assam and Kerala assembly elections. On the other hand, it’s desperate to gain stronghold in West Bengal. When the party forged an alliance with the CPI (M), it doled out a simple narrative: The alliance could be the best possible alternative to Trinamool Congress-led government. Recently, it has tried to sound positive. One thing that is being increasingly heard is that the Congress-Left Alliance will have one-on-one fight with the TMC in more than 90 per cent assembly seats.
BJP’s Concerns
The BJP is doing its bit to make inroads into state politics. The first major step they took was nominating Chandra Kumar Bose, the grandnephew of Subhash Chandra Bose, against Mamata Banerjee. In a further attempt to boost the prospects of the party in the West Bengal assembly polls, the BJP announced that PM Modi will address at least 10 public meetings across the state ahead of the elections.
Despite all the aggression ahead of the polls, there have been minor hiccups that the party has faced, with the latest one being the resignation of a minority chief Shakeel Ansari to protest BJP’s decision of not allotting a single seat (out of 52) to any Muslim candidate in West Bengal. This could be a concern for the party as its indicates the waning support of the minority community in the state.
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