Two very significant developments took place in Assam in the last few days: The BJP released party’s ‘vision document’ for the upcoming assembly elections and a new opinion poll predicted hung assembly with AIUDF likely to be the ‘kingmaker’. These developments are crucial for the simple fact that two parties – the Congress and AGP – which have been ruling the state intermittently, are anxious of their prospects. Although AGP took a tough call of allying with the BJP, it has been showing its discontentment over seat-sharing deal. Tarun Gogoi is well aware of the anti-incumbency waves rippling across the state.
As close to 19 million voters are trying to decide which party they will owe their allegiance to, let’s have a look at some of the candidates and their expected performance in the two-phase polls.
Badruddin Ajmal and the Rise of AIUDF
Even six months back, neither the Congress nor the BJP had any inkling that All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) will eat into their vote share. With the recent opinion poll predicting 26 seats for the AIUDF, the party leaders – Badruddin and Sirajuddin Ajmal – are convinced that no single party can form the next government without their support. Although my Hindu friends in the Assam say that “only insane people can vote for AIUDF”, it must be borne in mind that the party is still popular among Muslim voters.
One of the reasons why Bengali-speaking Muslims of the state are tilting towards the AIUDF is because of Badruddin Ajmal – a businessman-cum-politician. While the Hindus consider him “communal and a businessman”, others look at him as a ‘holy man’ who can work wonders. His degree in theology and acts of philanthropy in the form of charitable hospital and NGO have made him a messiah-like figure in the entire Nowgaon district.
Sarbananda Sonowal of BJP
It’s not unfair to say that the coalition between the BJP and AGP was a last-ditch effort by two cornered parties in the state to oust the Congress. Although the BJP has done well to rope in Sonowal as the CM candidate, the former AGP member has to fight the sense of betrayal that people of Assam have about BJP not been able to keep the promises made in 2014 general elections.
Sonowal, the Union Minister and also the state BJP president, has to answer some tough questions raised by the Congress and common people who have hardly seen any genuine effort towards solving state’s problems. Even before the party’s CM face can think of winning the elections, he has to resolve a number of issues within his party. He has to strike a balance between leaders who had worked hard to defeat the Congress in 2014 and those rebel Congress leaders who have recently joined the BJP.
Other BJP Candidates
The idea of fielding Sonowal from Majuli constituency was a commendable move as Majuli, a constituency reserved for tribals, would probably vote for their national hero. Similarly, the party played safe when it asked Himanta Biswa Sarma to contest from Jalukbari. The reason is very simple: Sarma represented this seat for three terms. Titabor, which is a part of Jorhat Lok Sabha constituency, is served by Tarun Gogoi, the Chief Minister of Assam. To put a stop on his winning spree, BJP has decided to field Lok Sabha member and tea community leader Kamakhya Prasad Tasha.
Congress Candidates
The Congress has already claimed having released a “well-balanced” list of candidates for the two-phase assembly elections in Assam. There is lot of truth in the statement if we go by the number of educated people and social workers given the tickets to contest polls.
The Congress hasn’t experimented much when it comes to choosing candidates because it has re-nominated all MLAs serving in the current government. While it was surprising that Pradesh Congress Committee chief Anjan Dutta was not mentioned in the list of candidates, it was equally convincing to see the party leadership counting on prominent people including Agriculture Minister Rakibul Hussain, Health Minister Nazrul Islam from Laharighat and Water Resources Minister Basanta Das from Mangaldoi.
This year, the party has been little more generous in doling out seats to Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes to win confidence of the voters from these communities. It was predictable to see ex-ministers Ardhendu Kumar Dey, Nilamani Sen Deka and Akon Bora nominated to contest from Hojai, Dharmapur and Dispur respectively.
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