Summary of West Bengal Assembly Election 2016 Opinion Poll
| (March-2016 Projection) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party/Alliance | Elections.in | India TV-C Voter | ABP-Neilsen | News Nation | ETV Bangla |
| TMC | 190 | 160 | 178 | 165 | 201 |
| CPM+ | 100 | 127 | 110 | 125 | 64 |
| BJP | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Total Seats | 294 | 294 | 294 | 294 | 266 |
Prannoy Roy’s Analysis of West Bengal Polls
According to an analysis by renowned Journalist Prannoy Roy who is an expert in election coverage, the Trinamool Congress has 60% chance of coming back to power in West Bengal. The Left-Congress combine has 40% chance of winning. The analysis points out that a swing of 3% votes could change the outcome of the elections. Roy’s analysis is based on historical data and current alliances.
West Bengal Assembly elections: India TV-CVoter opinion poll predicts victory for TMC
The recently released India TV-CVoter opinion polls for West Bengal elections has indicated that the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) will retain power in the state although the Left Front is likely to make a significant gain in vote share. The alliance with the Left is unlikely to help the Congress as the party is expected to bag 21 seats, which is much less than the 106 seats predicted from the CPI (M). The TMC is projected to get 160 seats while the BJP is unlikely to win in more than four seats.
| Party/Alliance | Seats Projection | Vote % |
|---|---|---|
| TMC | 160 | 40 |
| CPM+ | 106 | 31 |
| Congress | 21 | 8 |
| BJP | 4 | 11 |
| Others | 3 | 9 |
West Bengal Opinion Poll by Elections.in
| Party/Alliance | Seat Projection |
|---|---|
| TMC | 190 |
| Congress +Left Front | 100 |
| BJP | 2 |
| Others | 2 |
West Bengal Opinion Poll by Zee 24 Ghanta
An opinion poll carried out by GFK Mode on behalf of Zee 24 Ghanta has projected that the Trinamool Congress is likely to get 200 seats in the approaching West Bengal Assembly elections. The Congress-Left alliance, which is tipped to get about 90 seats, will emerge a distant runner-up. The BJP would not be able to replicate its Lok Sabha elections performance and may end up with one seat only. The opinion poll shows that the recent Narada News sting operation has not had a major impact on the voters.
| Party/Alliance | Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll in March 2016 |
|---|---|
| TMC | 200 |
| Left Front-Congress | 90 |
| BJP | 1 |
| Others | 3 |
West Bengal Opinion Poll by ABP News – Nielsen
| Party | Actual seats in the 2011 Elections | Forecast vote % as per Opinion Poll Feb 2016 | Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Feb 2016 | Forecast vote % as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016 | Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AITC | 190 | 44 | 182 | 45 | 178 |
| BJP | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| INC | 38 | 43 | 107 | 44 | 110 |
| Left | 57 | ||||
| IND and Others | 8 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Total | 294 | 100 | 294 | 100 | 294 |
West Bengal Opinion Poll by IB (Intelligence Bureau)
(March-2016)
Last week has seen several developments in West Bengal as the political parties gear up for the assembly elections in April-May. Amidst the wide-ranging discussions over BJP’s move to field grandnephew of Subhas Chandra Bose against West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, the Intelligence Bureau submitted a survey report to the Union Home Ministry predicting victory for Mamata Banerjee-led TMC.
According to the IB report, the party will also improve its previous tally of 184 seats in 2011. Suggesting not much hope for the BJP, the report indicated that the party may not win more than five seats.
The report, which was created based on the ground reality, claimed that the Congress would end up being the third largest party in the state with 20-25 seats. Left Front, once again, is likely to emerge as the second largest party with 60-70 seats. While the ruling party will have a thumping victory in South Bengal, the opposition will gain some ground in North Bengal.
| Party/Alliance | Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016 |
|---|---|
| TMC | More than 184 |
| Left Front | 70 |
| Congress | 25 |
| BJP | 5 |
West Bengal Opinion Poll India TV by CVoter
According to the survey conducted by C-voter for India TV, Mamata Banerjee-led TMC is likely to win the West Bengal assembly elections and retain power in the state. According to the report released the TMC is expected to win 156 out of the 294 seats in the assembly. This is decline in vote share as compared to what it had got (184) in 2011. The CPI(M)-led Left front is likely to win 114 seats, which will be 54 seats more than the last elections. The vote share of Congress may fall to 13 from 4.
| Party/Alliance | Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016 |
|---|---|
| TMC | 156 |
| Left Front | 114 |
| Congress | 13 |
| Others (including BJP) | 11 |
West Bengal Opinion Poll by ETV Bangla
| Party/Alliance | Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll Mar 2016 |
|---|---|
| TMC | 201 |
| Left Front | 34 |
| Congress | 27 |
| Others (including BJP) | 32 |
West Bengal Opinion Poll by ABP News
(May – 2015)
| Party | Forecast Seats as per Opinion Poll May 2015 |
|---|---|
| TMC | 198 |
| BJP | 12 |
| INC | 40 |
| Left Front | 36 |
| Others | 7 |
* Polling organisation/Agency – ABP NEWS – Nielsen
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