Do exit polls matter? Are exit polls reliable? The truth is, if conducted properly with the right sample size, exit polls should be able to predict election results accurately. An exit poll is a type of survey which is conducted after voters have cast their votes at their polling stations. Exit polls serve as an important mechanism to substantiate the integrity of the elections in question. In many countries, variances between exit polls and the official vote count have often been used to overturn election results.
In India, exit polls are banned during the course of elections to make sure that voters are not influenced by their results even as voting is on. They get published once the voting procedure is complete. The exit polls conducted at the time of Delhi and Bihar assembly elections in 2015 turned out to be way off the mark. Here’s a look at how they have fared in 2016.
Tamil Nadu
While most exit polls proclaimed that incumbent AIADMK would cede power to the DMK, CVoter was spot on with its prediction of 139 seats going to AIADMK and 78 to the DMK alliance. The actual results were not very different: the AIADMK got 134 and DMK 89. NewsNation had predicted a closer contest between the two Dravidian parties. Besides Elections.in, both IndiaToday-Axis and News Nation had predicted AIADMK’s defeat and in all of them, the party’s seat share was in the range of 95 and 100. It is likely that DMK’s inability to capitalise on anti-incumbency and Jayalalitha’s attractive welfare measures made it possible for the AIADMK to come back to power.
Kerala
In Kerala’s case, the most accurate predictions were made by Elections.in. It had predicted 90 seats for the LDF, which is just one less than its actual tally. Again, its prediction of 45 seats for the UDF was just two less than what it actually got. The IndiaToday-Axis survey was the second most accurate as its predictions gave 94 and 43 seats to the LDF and UDF respectively. News Nation was off the mark. Though Cvoter’s predictions handed victory to the LDF, it gave more leeway to the UDF.
West Bengal
Chanakya was on target with its prediction of 210 seats for the TMC and 70 for Left-Congress combine. It overshot its prediction with regard to BJP giving the party 14 seats. According to the final results, the TMC won in 211, Congress-Left alliance 77 and BJP in six seats. While CVoter predicted more seats for the Left-Congress combine, IndiaToday-Axis hinted at a more dismal performance giving only 44 seats to the alliance.
Assam
IndiaToday-Axis’ prediction was accurate on Assam. It predicted 86 seats for the BJP and its alliance. However, it underestimated the influence of the AIUDF as it projected the party to win only seven seats. ABP’s projection on BJP’s seat share was also close. Elections.in, which had forecast 16 seats for Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF, was near-accurate. CVoter had predicted 18 seats for the party. The AIUDF got 13 seats.
Puducherry
On Puducherry elections, the NDTV projections were very similar to the actual results. It had predicted 16 seats for the Congress and three for the AIADMK. The actual results revealed that they won 17 and four seats respectively. There was near unanimity among survey agencies on the possible verdict against N. Rangasamy’s AINRC.
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