In Uttarakhand, like elsewhere, political parties are besieged with the problem of plenty and turncoats. Despite this, in the small hilly state which is going for a single-phase poll on February 15, there is no ambiguity or confusion in assessing what move electorates will take this time around. Four main parties like the Congress, the BJP, the BSP and the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) are in the fray. Yet, it is the BJP which enjoys an edge over its closest rival, the Congress, the ruling party which is staring anti-incumbency factor under Chief Minister Harish Rawat in the forthcoming assembly polls.
Of the total 70 assembly seats up for grabs, any party which wins 36 seats forms a government in Uttarakhand. In the last assembly polls, held in 2012, the Congress had won 32 seats, while the BJP remained victorious on 31 seats. Even though the Congress was four seats short of the total required for a simple majority in the state assembly, it managed to form a government with support from the BSP, the UKD and Independents. Five years since then, the ruling dispensation appears no more dynamic and effective to retain the power back.
What’s worse is that the loyal Congress leaders like N D Tiwari, who formed first Congress-led government in the hilly state in 2002 and served in top positions at the Centre under various Congress-led governments for years, have deserted the party. N D Tiwari did that because his son, Rohit Shekhar was denied a ticket to contest the election. Both the father and the son have joined the BJP, giving the Congress a major blow. Before this, inner squabbling saw senior Congress legislator Yashpal Arya, a popular Dalit face, leaving the party.
However, a series of developments since March last year, including the one when former Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna and eight others revolted against Chief Minister Harish Rawat-led government, have virtually left the Congress weak and vulnerable. All the nine rebels, including firebrand Harak Singh Rawat who revolted against Harish Rawat later joined the BJP. In this background, it is a foregone conclusion as to what shape the Uttarakhand election will take.
Political atmosphere in Uttarakhand
Power has alternately changed hands in Uttarakhand since its formation in November 2000, and so has instability. Both the Congress-led government and the BJP-headed regime have witnessed instability in the state. Both have not been able to clear off themselves from corruption charges. It is in the absence of a third powerful alternate political force in the state, that the people have backed the Congress and the BJP alternately in the formation of a government.
Therefore, whenever an election takes place the political atmosphere of the hilly state becomes predictable. However, this time the tables have somewhat turned. If Harish Rawat-led Congress government does come back to power, it would be due to the Chief Minister’s autocratic style of functioning and sting operation which purportedly showed Rawat offering bribes to rebel Congress lawmakers to support him during a floor test in the Uttarakhand assembly last year. Corruption and development are two major poll planks. Still, it is personality and cult which appear to be the overriding factors in the forthcoming election in which 75,99,688 electorates will participate. Of this, 39,23,492 are male and 35,72,045 are female.
Who will win election?
So far, the scale is tilted in the BJP’s favour in the state. But the saffron party is not without its share of woes. It is facing rebellion from those who have been denied tickets. They have threatened to contest as independent candidates. This may affect the poll prospects of the saffron party. This apart, the BSP, which has also an influence in some pockets of the state, can equally emerge as a stumbling block in the way of a party’s effort to secure majority seats on its own.
Dalits constitute 18 per cent of the total population. There are as many as 15 reserved seats in the state. Thirteen seats are reserved for the Scheduled Caste and two for the Scheduled Tribe. In the last assembly polls, the BSP had won three seats and secured 12.19 per cent votes. The BSP is currently part of an alliance which supports the Harish Rawat government. Though it did so to avoid a split in the party, but it is true that it represents a political force whose existence can’t be simply written off.
In the 2014 parliamentary polls, however, Mayawati-led party had lost the election on all the five seats. The Congress, too, could not secure victory on any parliamentary seat. In the 2012 polls, the party had secured 33.79 per cent votes, while the BJP was able to win 33.13 votes. In contrast, the UKD, a regional party with left-to-the-centre political position had won just one seat and secured 3.18 per cent vote share in the last assembly polls.
Despite several years of existence, it has not been able to become a third alternative force in this mountain state. Nonetheless, it is one of the five poll-bound states where the BJP has a direct fight with the Congress.
Electoral strategy of political parties
Broadly following the same poll strategy as is witnessed in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has fanned out “Parivartan Yatra” across the hilly state. It is also banking on door-to-door meetings and street dramas for canvassing. Then, given that the state has a large number of retired and serving army personnel, appointment of Gen Bipin Rawat as new Chief of Army Staff and Anil Dhasmana as RAW chief has provided the BJP an opportunity to win sentiments of people especially from the Garhwal region of the state.
NSA Ajit Doval also belongs to the same region of the hilly state. The saffron party is also harping on the Narendra Modi government’s implementation of ‘One Rank One Pension’ scheme to woo families belonging to armed forces. Besides, it is leaving no stone unturned to woo the Dalit community. Development and corruption-free state are two major poll planks of the BJP.
On the other hand, the ruling Congress party has hired Prashant Kishor, a professional electoral strategist to devise plans to woo electorates in the state. Development and stability are main planks of the Congress. Although the BSP has its eyes set on reserved seats, the party has fielded candidates on all 70 assembly seats, indicating that it is keen to become a force in the Himalayan state. Playing pro-Dalit and pro-Muslim cards are favourite electoral options of the BSP in the state, which according to 2011 census, has 13.9 per cent Muslim population.
In 23 out of 70 assembly constituencies spread from Haridwar to Udhamsingh Nagar to Dehradun and Nainital districts have 15 to over 50 per cent of Muslim population.
Key electoral issues
Besides unemployment and migration, lack of power and other infrastructures like road constitute major electoral issues in the state. According to a data, more than 7 lakh people, of whom 90 per cent are educated, are unemployed in the state. But this data only takes into account those who are registered with the state’s employment exchange bureaus. That means the number of unemployed people could be much more than what meets the eye.
Religious tourism is the lone employment generating source in the state. Migration of people from the state is linked with unemployment. As many as 1,100 villages in this mountain state are complete empty, while there are 664 villages in the Garhwal region with just a handful of residents who are either old or sick.
Conclusion
Opinion polls surveyed by India Today or ABP News have shown positive outcome for the BJP in the assembly election. Only one local news outlet, Uttarakhand Post has given the Congress an edge over its rival, the BJP. Yet, the overall mood of the voters indicates that they want a change for the sake of the state’s development and prosperity. Which party passes the electoral test will be seen after results are out on March 11.
The post Powered by favourable wave, BJP appears ready to sink Rawat’s boat in Uttarakhand appeared first on Elections Blog.