After months of talks, and weeklong high drama in the bungalows of Lutyens’ Delhi and Lucknow, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress finally sealed their pre-poll alliance deal for Uttar Pradesh election. Under this deal, while the SP will contest on 298 seats, the Congress on 105 of the total 403 assembly seats. Initially, the Congress had asked for more than 120 seats, but the grand old party which has since 1989 seen only rough patches in its growth and organizational infrastructure across Uttar Pradesh, accepted what was offered to it. But Bihar like ‘Mahagathbandhan’ that many visualized taking place in the state, could not take place as the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) preferred to contest assembly polls on its own after its seat arrangement formula with the SP failed to materialize. Though the Congress formalized its tie up with Akhilesh Yadav-led SP with an aim to stop frittering away of “secular votes” and blocking the BJP from repeating the 2014 Lok Sabha election performance, the fact is something else. The Congress opted to ride piggy back the SP, because the former is not confident to do well on its own. To capture Brahmin votes in the state where Brahmin constitutes 13 per cent of the total population, the Congress initially projected Sheila Dikshit, the four-time Delhi Chief Minister, as a chief ministerial face of the party. It even hired the services of professional electoral strategists like Prashat Kishor to increase the party’s footprint in the state. Yet several opinion poll surveys gave no more than 13-19 seats to the Congress in the UP assembly election. However, following the pact between the SP and the Congress, the duo can hit the BJP’s resurgence and the BSP’s prospect in the Uttar Pradesh election.
Are Muslim votes a factor behind SP-Congress alliance?
Behind the formalization of pre-poll pact between the SP and the Congress, Muslim votes have been a dominant consideration of the two parties. Muslim constitutes 19.3 per cent of the state population. In 73 assembly constituencies they form more than 30 per cent of the electorate and on 70 seats, Muslim constitutes between 20 to 30 per cent of total voters. After the Babri mosque’s demolition in 1992, Muslims have in large number shifted towards the SP, costing the Congress, once a preferred party of the minority community members, dearly. While the SP and the BSP performed well, the Congress lost its credibility among Muslim. In spite of pumping in huge money and Rahul Gandhi-led whirlwind campaign, the party could win only 28 seats in the 2012 polls, six more than what it got in the 2007 election. On the other hand, the SP won 72 seats from Muslim dominated areas alone in the 2012 polls. In the aftermath of SP-Congress alliance, there is possibility it becomes a deadly combination, eschewing the BSP of its chance to corner maximum number of Muslim votes. During the 2012 election, despite its failure to beat anti-incumbency, Mayawati-led party could bag 80 seats while its vote share was 25.91 per cent, a loss of 4.52 per cent from the 2007 polls. The BSP feels that its Dalit-Muslim combination would trounce over any electoral challenges. And this confidence of the party can be seen in the distribution of 97 tickets to Muslim candidates. But what will happen to the BJP? There is a fear that the party may find itself in the crosshair following the Congress-SP alliance. The saffron party’s argument is that Muslims never vote for it, as such its poll prospect would not suffer. Yet taste of pudding is in the eating.
Can SP-Congress alliance work among upper castes and OBCs?
With its base among Yadav-Muslim combine, the SP has been able to attract only floating voters belonging to upper castes. The BJP, with its vote bank among Brahmin-Vaisya community members, has managed to poach on non-Yadav and non-Jatav voters since 2014 parliamentary election. To keep this combination of Brahmin-Vaisya-OBCs-non-Jatav intact, the party has given fair representation to members of these communities in the Narendra Modi government. However, post demonetization and the BJP’s failure to provide a chief ministerial face, it does not appear the saffron party will be able to puncture Akhilesh Yadav’s roller-coaster ride to power again in Uttar Pradesh. Nor the BSP can turn applecart against the SP-Congress’ rise to become a formidable force.
Conclusion
In democracy, ultimate decider happens to be voters. Therefore, nothing can be predicted correctly even as SP-Congress alliance at the moment enjoys advantage in perception.
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